The VIX:VXV Ratio
The VXV is the VIX’s longer-term brother; it measures implied volatility 3 months out instead of 30 days out. The ratio between the VIX and the VXV captures the differential between short-term and medium-term implied volatility. Naturally, the ratio spends most…
Holiday Effects in the Chinese Stock Market
Various holiday effects are well documented for developed countries’ stock markets, typically showing abnormal returns around thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year, and Easter. Do similar effects exist in the Chinese stock market? In this post I’ll take a look at returns…
IBS and Relative Value Mean Reversion
I’m writing a paper on the IBS effect, but it’s taking a bit longer than expected so I thought I’d share some of the results in a blog post. The starting point is a paper by Levy & Lieberman: Overreaction of…
A Quick Look at IB’s Equity Index CFDs
I recently got a mail from IB touting their new lineup of equity index CFDs. As I trade a lot of equity index ETFs I thought I’d take a look at them, in case I could get away with lower…
Hedging VIX ETP Strategies Using SPY
Introduction A quick intro to VIX ETPs (some are ETFs, others are ETNs)1 before we get to the meat: the VIX itself is not tradable, only futures on the VIX are. These futures do not behave like equity index futures which…
Consecutive Up or Down Days, NASDAQ 100 Edition
Just a short post today. Jack Damn has been tweeting about consecutive up/down days lately, which inspired me to go looking for a potential edge. The NASDAQ 100 has posted 6 consecutive up days as of yesterday’s close. Is this a signal…
Using Factor Momentum to Optimize GTAA Portfolios
Taking another look at portfolio optimization methods as they apply to relative strength- & momentum-based GTAA portfolios, this time I present a novel method that uses factor momentum in an attempt to tilt the allocation towards the factors behind the…
Closing Price in Relation to the Day’s Range, and Equity Index Mean Reversion
The location of the closing price within the day’s range is a surprisingly powerful predictor of next-day returns for equity indices. The closing price in relation to the day’s range (or CRTDR [UPDATE: as reader Jan mentioned in the comments, there…
Equity Returns Following Extreme VIX and WVF Movements, Part 1
Can extreme changes in implied volatility help predict future returns? And can we use a VIX surrogate as a substitute? First, let’s take a look at the WVF and its relationship to the VIX. The Williams’ VIX Fix (WVF) is…
S&P 500 Returns Following New Lows (and Highs)
Today the S&P 500 closed at a 20-day low. Is there anything useful we can do with this piece of information? Let’s take a look at the performance of SPY after it closes at a 20-day low: Not particularly…
Recent Comments